Did You Know That

* In 2008, Ford posted its worst loss (14.6 billion) in its 105-year history. In what turned out to be a terrible year for oil, Exxon Mobil reported the greatest profit ever for a U.S. company, 45.2 billion. EM also has remaining 31 billion in cash, after distributing 40.1 billion to shareholders and spending 26 billion on capital and exploration projects. The second largest U.S. oil company, Chevron, made a mere 24 billion, more than 5 billion over 2007. Oh, yes, Wall Street executives were given 18 billion in bonuses AFTER the Wall Street rescue package was approved. Remember, the U.S. Department of Energy, since it was created in the 70's, has not spent that total sum for renewable energy research.

* There were two unanimous votes last week:

a. The U.S. House passed the 819 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, but every Republican voted against the measure.

b. The Illinois State Senate voted 59-0 to impeach Governor Rod Blagojevich.

* The California mother of recent octuplets, Nadya Suleman, is, at the age of 33, now up to 14 children, but remains unmarried. A second set of octuplets lives in Texas. While there have been pregnancies up to 15 fetuses (all but one through assistive reproductive technology), there have been no survivors of multiple births beyond eight.

* You think you live in a tough neighborhood? Seven residents of Uttar Pradesh, India have been killed by tigers over the past few weeks. Government officials tend to hunt, tranquilize, attempt to treat the tiger for ailments (which is why it generally becomes a manhunter) and relocate it, for with 100,000 a century ago, the number is down to 1500, half what the population was only five years ago. 300,000 victims were reported between 1800 and 1900. These deaths compare with the dreaded H5N1 bird flu (254) and from vehicular incidents (more than 1 million/year, with less than 50,000 annually for the U.S.).

* Hawaii's tourism fell 16.5% in 2008, the worst since the depths of the Great Depression, 1932. I have some good news and bad news. First, tourism will improve by next year, and should increase with more Chinese and Korean visitors, plus improvement of the world economy. However, the bad news is that oil prices will jump past 100/barrel sometime during the next decade, or sooner, and tourism will drop below 2008 because jet fuel prices will skyrocket. The Hawaii economy will then drop into depression, unless:

a. We find a replacement for the jetliner or a cost-effective substitute for jet fuel. There is potential for a biofuel from microalgae, but current costs are somewhere between 125 and 1350 per barrel (3/gallon to 32/gallon). In either case, jet fuel will still be too expensive to maintain our current level of tourism. The Hawaiian Hydrogen Clipper has been proposed, a dirigible capable of travelling up to 350 miles per hour, but if development progresses as anticipated, commercialization would probably be 25 years away.

b. We quickly (start now to have an impact in 25 years) diversify our economy with one or more industries at least the equivalent of current tourism. My favorite is the Blue Revolution, utilizing ocean thermal energy conversion to provide electricity, freshwater, air conditioning, floating casino hotels, next generation fisheries, marine biomass plantations, green chemicals, biofuels, hydrogen and more.

The odds of any of the above having a major impact within ten years are very remote...but if nothing is done today, Hawaii truly will be in terrible shape for the rest of this century.

The Dow Jones Industrials dropped 64 to 7937. World markets also all fell. Crude oil slipped 1.60/barrel to 40.08. Gold decreased 22.30/toz to 909.80.

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Tropical Cyclone 13C has formed 795 miles northeast of La Reunion Island in the Indian Ocean, and now at 40 MPH, is moving west southwest.